www.cnn.com – 2023-04-26 08:34:00
CNN
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Dangerous, record-breaking heat waves are set to increase as the climate crisis intensifies, and they will be particularly devastating in countries and regions that are least prepared for them, according to a new study.
Scientists analyzed temperature data sets spanning more than 60 years, as well as climate models, to calculate the likelihood of unprecedented heat extremes occurring – and where these might happen.
They identified Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and Central America – including Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua – as “hot spots” for high-risk heat waves.
These regions are particularly vulnerable due to their fast-growing populations and limited access to healthcare and energy supplies, which undermine their resilience to extreme temperatures, according to the report, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.
“There’s evidence there that those regions may well be in for a big heat wave and they wouldn’t be prepared for it,” said Dann Mitchell, a professor in atmospheric sciences at the University of Bristol in the UK and a study co-author.
The threat facing Afghanistan is particularly stark, Mitchell told CNN. Not only is there high potential for record-breaking extreme heat, but the impacts will be intensified by the huge difficulties the country already faces, he said.
Afghanistan is struggling with dire social and economic problems. It also has a growing population which is increasingly exposed to the problems of limited resources, according to the report.
“When a really extreme heat wave does finally come along, then there are instantly going to be a lot of problems,” Mitchell said.
Heat waves have a wide-ranging negative impact. They reduce air quality, worsen drought, increase the risk of wildfires and can lead infrastructure to buckle.
They also take a heavy toll on human health, and extreme heat is one of the deadliest natural disasters. Heat stroke or heat exhaustion can trigger a wide range of dangerous symptoms, including headaches, dizziness, nausea and loss of consciousness, among others. Heat stroke is the most serious heat-related illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, causing body temperature to skyrocket in a matter of minutes, and can lead to permanent disability or death.
Several regions have already seen unprecedented temperatures this year. In March, parts of Argentina grappled with temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius, or 18 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal, while high temperature records were smashed across large parts of Asia in April.
“Heat waves and other extreme weather events will only become more intense…