French Far Right Leads in First Round of 2024 France Elections: What Comes Next?

French Elections: Far-Right Victory Looms

French voters are on the brink of a pivotal decision in the runoff of snap parliamentary elections on July 7. The outcome could potentially usher in the country’s first far-right government since World War II, or result in no clear majority emerging.

The First Round

In the initial round on Sunday, the National Rally and its allies secured around one-third of the votes, positioning them as frontrunners. The New Popular Front coalition claimed second place, surpassing President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

Many candidates have advanced to a second round on June 7, with projections indicating that the National Rally may secure the most seats in the upcoming National Assembly.

Challenges and Strategies

Rival parties are strategizing to prevent the National Rally from achieving an absolute majority. The left-wing coalition plans to withdraw candidates to support alternatives to the far right, while Macron’s alliance also intends to step down in some districts to impede the National Rally’s progress.

Previously considered a political pariah, the National Rally now boasts significant support nationwide, posing a formidable challenge to its opponents.

Rising Far-Right Phenomenon

Amid economic struggles and sentiments of disenchantment, the far-right party has capitalized on voter frustrations, particularly attributing France’s challenges to immigration. Its broad support base is evident in regions where mainstream politics are perceived as disconnected from everyday concerns.

The Concept of Cohabitation

If a party other than Macron’s secures a majority, the president must appoint a prime minister from that faction, leading to a scenario known as “cohabitation.” During such periods, divergent policies may emerge, impacting governance and international relations.

Cohabitation has occurred thrice in France’s modern history, highlighting the complexities of power dynamics between the president and the parliament.

Implications of the Outcome

The National Assembly’s authority surpasses that of the Senate, making the upcoming election crucial for shaping legislative decisions. Any shift in power could influence France’s foreign policy and defense strategies, potentially altering its stance on global issues.

The possibility of cohabitation raises concerns about policy alignment and decision-making, presenting a challenge for maintaining a coherent national voice on international platforms.