Parts of the Southwest could see a year’s worth of rain with Hurricane Hilary approaching.

Hurricane Hilary: Threat of Flooding Rainfall and Tropical Storm Watch for California

Concern is growing as Hurricane Hilary approaches the southwestern US and parts of California. This rare move has triggered the first ever tropical storm watch for California.

Hilary has the potential to bring a significant amount of rainfall to California, Nevada, and Arizona, potentially dumping more than a year’s worth of rain in some areas. This poses a high risk for excessive rainfall, which has never been issued at this level before.

Hurricane Hilary: A Powerful Category 4 Storm

Currently a Category 4 hurricane, Hilary is located about 360 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. With sustained winds of 145 mph and stronger gusts, the storm has undergone rapid intensification over the past 24 hours.

Hilary is forecasted to remain a Category 4 hurricane as it approaches Mexico’s Baja California peninsula. Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for Baja California and northwest Mexico.

Potential Impact on the US

There are varying outcomes for the strongest winds in the US as the storm moves north. Small changes in the hurricane’s track could alter the forecast for the most intense rain and wind.

Although Hilary is more likely to make landfall in Mexico and cross into California, the possibility of it making landfall in California as a tropical storm exists. If this occurs, it would be the first such storm in nearly 84 years.

The first ever tropical storm watch has been issued for parts of Southern California, extending from the California/Mexico border to the Orange County/Los Angeles County line.

Threat of Heavy Rainfall and Flooding

While Hilary is expected to weaken before reaching Southern California and the Southwest, heavy rainfall and increased flooding danger are still expected. The most intense downpours are likely to occur on Sunday and Monday.

The high risk for excessive rainfall is a major concern. Research from the Weather Prediction Center shows that high risks account for 83% of all flood-related damage and 39% of all flood-related deaths, even though they occur on fewer than 4% of days per year on average.

Southern parts of California and Nevada could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches. Central parts of these states, as well as western Arizona and southwest Utah, are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain.

In some of the driest parts of California, such as Death Valley, the storm could bring multiple years’ worth of precipitation in a single day. Las Vegas could also see 2 to 4 inches of rain, significantly more than its annual average of 3.75 inches.

There is a concern that prolonged rain may oversaturate the ground and overwhelm waterways, worsening the flood threat. Mojave National Preserve, on the California-Nevada border, has been closed until further notice due to possible flooding.

Preparedness Measures and Warnings

Flood watches have been issued across southern California, from San Diego to Los Angeles, as residents prepare for potential deluges. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles has also warned of high surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.

Atlantic Tropical Activity

As the East Pacific deals with Hurricane Hilary, the Atlantic is also preparing for an increase in tropical activity. Four separate areas of concern stretch across the entire basin.

The most immediate concern for the United States is an area in the warm Gulf of Mexico, where conditions are favorable for tropical development next week. An area of low pressure may organize and acquire tropical characteristics over the western Gulf.

Three other areas of concern are in the tropical Atlantic. One area west of the Cabo Verde Islands may organize into a tropical depression and potentially strengthen into a tropical storm. Another area just west of this could also become a tropical depression. A third area near the Lesser Antilles has a low chance of developing tropical characteristics.

Read More of this Story at www.cnn.com – 2023-08-18 21:06:00