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Joe Biden’s Path to Reelection

President Joe Biden, center, takes photos with patrons at They Say restaurant during a campaign stop Feb. 1, 2024, in Harper Woods, Michigan. Evan Vucci/AP

Introduction

When it comes to winning reelection, Joe Biden faces a unique challenge. Although national polls often show him trailing Donald Trump, an incumbent president in this stage of the campaign, these polls hold little significance. The key to victory lies in the state-by-state battle for Electoral College votes.

Regional Battlegrounds

In the 2020 election, the battleground states that held the key to victory were clustered either around the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) or along the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina). If Biden can secure all the states in either of these regions, while also maintaining the states he won in 2020, he would secure a second term in office.

The Great Lakes Advantage

Currently, it appears that Biden’s easiest path to a second term lies in the Great Lakes region rather than the Sun Belt. Recent Fox News polls demonstrate this trend. In Wisconsin, the president won by less than a point in 2020, but now Biden and Trump are tied. In Georgia, which Biden narrowly won in 2020, Trump currently holds an 8-point advantage.

Polling Consistency

The Fox News polls are not isolated cases. Trump has not held a lead in any Wisconsin poll meeting CNN’s publication standards this election cycle. Similarly, he has not trailed in any Georgia poll for well over a year.

Continue reading about Biden’s path to reelection.

Read More of this Story at www.cnn.com – 2024-02-07 06:16:00