The Battle for the White House Begins: Trump’s Return?
On the afternoon of January 6, Donald Trump, the former President of the United States, made a bold move. He addressed a crowd in Clinton, Iowa, asking voters to send him back to the White House and once again shake up the world as he did in 2016.
As the Iowa caucuses approach on Monday night, the Republican party takes its first step towards selecting a candidate to challenge the current Democratic President, Joe Biden. With an estimated number of fewer than 200,000 voters expected to brave the subfreezing temperatures, these first ballots will set the tone for the 2024 presidential election cycle.
The Unlikely Contender
Three years ago, it seemed highly improbable that Trump would even be considered a contender. After a disappointing outcome in the 2022 midterm elections, his chances appeared even slimmer. However, the 77-year-old former president is now the overwhelming favorite to secure the Republican nomination.
A Nail-Biting Rematch
If Trump emerges victorious and unscathed from the nomination battle, it will cause unease among America’s closest allies around the world leading up to the presidential election. Biden has worked to rebuild America’s commitment to its traditional partners after the tumultuous Trump administration. The prospect of a closely contested race, the first since 1956, has already prompted Biden to directly attack Trump and frame the election as a battle to save American democracy.
The Power of the Iowa Caucuses
The Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary have the potential to upend the conventional wisdom of a presidential election. These early contests can bring surprises, reward underdogs, and shift momentum. For a while, it seemed that Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, was in the lead to capitalize on any cracks in Trump’s support. However, Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador to the UN, has now surpassed him in the polls and has a chance to challenge Trump’s inevitability in New Hampshire.
Trump’s Base and Their Loyalty
Despite Trump’s failed attempts to subvert the previous election and the legal troubles he faces, his base remains loyal. Many Republican pollsters and strategists believe that the working-class, rural, and less educated conservatives still enthusiastically support Trump and are energized by the possibility of his return to the White House.
The Uphill Battle
According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump enjoys the support of 60.4% of Republicans nationwide, with DeSantis and Haley trailing behind. In Iowa, Trump’s advantage remains strong, but Haley has made significant gains. However, even if Haley or DeSantis perform better than expected, it would still be challenging to overthrow Trump.
The Inevitability of Trump’s Victory
Republican pollsters and strategists believe that Trump’s lead is formidable. His supporters are eager to vote and are motivated by promises of better jobs, lower-priced gas, and closed borders. Trump’s widespread popularity within the party makes it difficult for his rivals to mount a successful challenge.
The Consequences of a Second Trump Administration
Historians and experts are warning about the potential consequences of a second Trump administration. Lindsay Chervinsky, a senior fellow at the Center for Presidential History, expresses concerns about the survival of the US political system. She believes that a second term for Trump would be drastically different from the first and could have profound effects on American democracy.
A Beacon of Hope: New Hampshire
Regardless of the outcome in Iowa, it may be the moderate Republicans in New Hampshire who act as a bulwark against Trump. With a higher proportion of moderate Republicans and fewer evangelical Christian voters, Trump’s lead is narrower in New Hampshire, opening the possibility of a victory for Haley.
Read More of this Story at www.ft.com – 2024-01-14 05:00:02
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