This Weekend, a Tropical Storm Likely to Develop in the Atlantic

Monitoring Tropical Development in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring two areas in the Atlantic for potential tropical development in the coming days. One system currently positioned over the open Atlantic Ocean shows signs of intensification and could evolve into the season’s second named tropical storm, moving towards the Caribbean.

Potential for Tropical Development

There is a 70 percent chance that the disturbance, located between South America and Africa, may develop into a tropical depression or storm. Weather models suggest the possibility of further strengthening, potentially reaching hurricane status as it meanders westward towards the Caribbean.

Early Stages of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

It is still early in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with the peak historically occurring around mid-September. Warm water temperatures and other atmospheric conditions indicate a likelihood of an active season ahead, raising concerns among forecasters.

System with Intensification Potential

The more prominent of the two systems is located southwest of the Cabo Verde islands in the Atlantic, between South America and Africa. The Hurricane Center estimates a 70 percent chance of development, with a potential tropical depression or storm forming east of the Windward Islands this weekend.

Factors Influencing Development

• The Saharan Layer (SAL) can hinder rapid organization by suppressing warm, moist air and preventing the formation of thunderstorms.
• Shear, or changing winds with altitude, may pose a challenge for the system as it moves towards the Windward Islands.

Once the system reaches the Lesser Antilles, conditions may become more favorable for intensification, possibly leading to hurricane formation.

Second System Outlook

In the western Caribbean, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of Nicaragua and Honduras demonstrates robust convection. However, the presence of strong mid-level winds could impede its organization, limiting its chances of development.

Designated as “Invest 94L” by the National Hurricane Center, this disturbance has a 30 percent likelihood of maturation. It is expected to bring heavy downpours to areas like Cancún and the Bay of Campeche before dissipating.